高善文華盛頓最新演講，以史為鑒建言中美關系

　　當地時間11月6日，由中國金融四十人論壇（CF40）與彼得森國際經濟研究所（PIIE）共同舉辦的第五屆CF40-PIIE中國經濟論壇在美國華盛頓舉行，中美經濟學家對中國金融創新與中美貿易爭端等話題進行了深入研討。

　　在以“大國貿易沖突的邊界及接觸原則”為主題的專題研討環節，CF40學術委員、安信證券首席經濟學家高善文以Let Histoty Brighten the Future(讓歷史照亮未來)為題，探討了更好管理中美經貿關系、助益雙方談判取得互利結果的有效途徑。

　　高善文發表主題演講

　　高善文認為，貿易爭端中最令人擔心的是中美之間的不信任感和相互誤解廣泛存在，并且近年來日益嚴重。一旦不信任感的日漸加深與經貿脫鉤的加速發展形成惡性循環，人們將受困于一個碎片化的世界。

　　“在這種背景下，討論如何更好地處理貿易爭端和未來的中美經濟關系、防止或減少上述情況的發生是非常重要的。關于這一點，歷史可能會為我們提供有助益的參考。”高善文提出。

　　1949年，美國選擇與新成立的中華人民共和國對抗，隨后在朝鮮半島和越南與中國作戰，事后看來，這造成了兩國間的重大悲劇。但其后兩國領導人的勇氣和智慧改變了歷史，雙方克服分歧和爭端來建立互信。高善文認為，目前兩國仍有廣泛的共同利益，“在現在這樣一個動蕩的時期，這些利益應該被明確地指出，并小心地維護。在這一背景下來看，貿易爭端至少在原則上是可管理的。”

　　高善文還就如何更好管理中美經貿關系、助益雙方談判取得互利結果提出了多項建議，演講全文如下（中文版由CF40獨家翻譯，英文版附后）：

　　讓歷史照亮未來

　　文 | 高善文

　　很榮幸在此與大家討論如此重要而又難解的話題——如何更好地處理中美貿易爭端。

　　讓我先講一個故事。在2018年1月貿易戰正在這里被醞釀之際，我有幸與中國金融四十人論壇成員一道訪問了華盛頓特區。當時，華盛頓特區的人們對中國有很多不滿——人們普遍認為貿易戰幾乎是不可避免的，對中國滿是負面情緒。

　　基于當時訪美的所見所得，我于2018年年中在中國發表了幾次演講，試圖通過及時且客觀的方式來介紹和總結當前沖突的邏輯，并在必要時解釋美國的立場。

　　我傳達的信息讓大多數聽眾感到震驚，甚至不敢相信。在移動互聯網和即時通信的時代，信息輕易可得，那些聽眾的反應令人困惑。

　　但是，這個故事中最讓我擔心的地方，是中美之間的誤解和不信任如此廣泛，并且近年來日益嚴重。

　　一種可能是，隨著中國迅速攀升至價值鏈上游，其GDP規模也在不斷壯大，這會導致彼此之間更加不信任和互相猜疑。隨之而來的是更多的爭執和沖突，脫鉤開始出現并加速發展。反過來，不信任感進一步加深，從而形成惡性循環。最終，我們將受困于一個碎片化的世界。不夸張地說，這個世界的安全性和富裕程度會降低。

　　在這種背景下，討論如何更好地處理貿易爭端和未來的中美經濟關系、防止或減少上述情況的發生是非常重要的。關于這一點，歷史可能會為我們提供有助益的參考。

　　1949年，美國選擇與新成立的中華人民共和國對抗，隨后在朝鮮半島和越南與中國作戰，事后看來，這也造成了兩國間的重大悲劇。兩國領導人的勇氣和智慧改變了歷史，尼克松總統于1970年代初訪問了北京，當時中國仍沉迷于搞文化大革命。一夜之間，世界變得更加安全，也逐漸走向和平與繁榮。

　　這給我們上了關鍵的一課：我們可以克服分歧和爭端來建立互信，追求我們的共同目標并發展我們的共同利益。

　　自那時起，世界上發生一系列變化——蘇聯成為歷史、中國發展成為世界第二大經濟體，并且仍在快速發展。

　　然而，兩國仍有廣泛的共同利益。在現在這樣一個動蕩的時期，這些利益應該被明確地指出，并小心地維護。在這一背景下來看，貿易爭端至少在原則上是可管理的。

　　舉例來說，氣候變化正在對地球構成越來越大的威脅。如果沒有美中兩國的合作和領導，幾乎不可能阻止氣候變暖的趨勢，更不用說履行《巴黎協定》的承諾。

　　正如我們所知，自由貿易是促進財富創造的最佳方式，而基于規則的全球體系則是維護自由貿易的最佳機制。如果沒有美中兩國的合作和領導，基于規則的全球體系可能會瓦解。

　　這樣的例子還有很多，我們僅舉幾個。

　　至于貿易爭端，盡管美國提出的一些主張和案例缺乏說服力，但總體而言，它們是可以解決的，中國也非常愿意這樣做。

　　例如，隨著中國經濟的日益成熟，更好地保護知識產權也符合中國的利益，中國在這一領域的努力和進展應該像PIIE所做的那樣，得到充分的認可和公正的記錄。

　　另一個例子是強制技術轉讓。許多中國學者認為這個問題的定義模糊，表述缺乏說服力，但中國仍然愿意考慮妥協。

　　有關雙邊貿易逆差的要求在經濟界人士看來是荒謬的，采購清單也是不現實的，但中國在這一問題上仍持靈活態度。

　　如上所述，鑒于中美關系的重要性和復雜性以及貿易爭端的性質，為了更好地管理和加強經濟關系，以下是一些建議：

　　? 中美經濟合作仍然是兩國關系的重要壓艙石，是互利互惠的，應該認真珍惜和維護。

　　? 貿易爭端永遠不應被政治化，而應被視為商業、可談判的事項。

　　? 要采取必要措施，防止爭端蔓延到其他領域，進而損害兩國互信和政治關系。

　　? 以有說服力的事實研究、可靠的成本收益分析方法和可行的解決方案支持我們的訴求和要求。為了讓信息得以有效傳遞，要改善中美彼此之間的溝通，以及與公眾的溝通。

　　? 可以采取更加務實和漸進的方法，首先解決容易解決的部分，因為有關產業政策和國家干預的問題很難得到快速調和。

　　? 我們應該將這些重要的多邊問題放到多邊平臺上解決。這樣可以使得讓步和執行變得更加容易。更重要的是，這或許將有助于世界貿易組織改革，并有助于在全球化受到日益高漲的民粹主義挑戰的關鍵時刻，維護和保持全球化勢頭。

　　Let History Brighten the Future

　　Gao Shanwen

　　It is my pleasure to discuss so important and difficult a topic of how to better manage Sino-US trade disputes.

　　Let me start by telling a story. In January 2018, I have had the chance to visit DC with CF40 group just when the trade war was being conceived here. Back then people in DC had quite a lot of complaints about China—it was widely thought that a trade war was all but inevitable and the sentiment against China was very negative.

　　Based on this experience and information picked up here, I delivered several speeches in China in the middle of 2018, trying to summarize and present the logic of the ongoing conflicts in a timely and objective way, explaining the positions of the US when necessary.

　　Most audience was just shocked by the message I conveyed and could not believe it. At the age of mobile internet and instant communication when information is easily available, the reactions from those audience is confusing.

　　However, what really worried me most in this story is that misunderstanding and mistrust between China and US run so deep and have been increasingly so in recent years.

　　One scenario is that as China rapidly climbs up the value chain and grows bigger in its size of GDP, resulting in deeper mistrust and suspicion of each other. More disputes and conflicts then follow, decoupling occurs and accelerates, and in turn mistrust is further entrenched, creating a vicious circle. Eventually we will be trapped in a fragmented world, which is less secure and less rich, to say the least.

　　Against this background, it is very important to discuss how to better manage the trade disputes and Sino-US economic relationship in the future, to prevent the scenario above mentioned from happening, or at least lessen its degree. Regarding this, history may provide helpful lessons.

　　In 1949, the U.S. turned its back on the newly-born PRC and fought a war with China in the Korean peninsula and later in Vietnam, which was a big tragedy for both countries in hindsight. With great courage and wisdom of the leadership from both countries, President Nixon visited Beijing in early 1970s when China was still obsessed with the Cultural Revolution, and overnight the world became safer and gradually more peaceful and prosperous.

　　The key lesson here is that we can overcome the differences and disputes to build trust, pursue our common goal, and grow our shared interests.

　　Ever since then the world has changed. The Soviet Union went into history and China has evolved into the second largest economy and is still growing fast.

　　However, the two countries still share widespread common interests, which shall be clearly identified and delicately preserved at this turbulent time, while the disputes in trade is well manageable at least in principle.

　　For example, climate change poses an increasing threat to the planet. Without cooperation and leadership from the US and China, it is almost impossible to arrest the warming-up trend, let alone fulfilling the commitment of the Paris Accord.

　　As we know, free trade is the best way to enhance wealth creation and a global rule-based system is the best regime to promote it. Without cooperation and leadership from the US and China, the global rule-based system may disintegrate.

　　The list can go very long and we just name a few.

　　As for the trade disputes, though some claims and cases presented by the US are less convincing than others, overall speaking, they are solvable and China is more than willing to do so.

　　For instance, as the Chinese economy becomes more sophisticated, better IPR protection serves China's interests as well, and China's efforts and progress in this field shall be well recognized and fairly documented, as have been done by PIIE.

　　Another example is forced technology transfer. Many Chinese scholars think the case is ill-defined and poorly presented, but China is still willing to compromise.

　　The demand concerning bilateral trade deficits sounds absurd to economic professionals and purchase list appears unrealistic, but China is still flexible on this issue.

　　As mentioned above, given the importance and complexity of Sino-US relationship and the nature of the trade disputes, to better manage and strengthen the economic relationship, here are some suggestions:

　　We shall emphasize that Sino-US economic cooperation is still an important ballast of the bilateral relationship, which is mutually beneficial and shall be carefully cherished and maintained.

　　We shall stress that the trade disputes shall never ever be politicized and shall always be taken as a commercial, negotiable matter.

　　We shall take necessary measures to prevent the disputes from spilling over into other fields and impairing mutual trust and political sentiment further.

　　We shall always support our claims and demands with convincing fact-based research, robust cost benefit analysis, and feasible solutions. In order to let the message be delivered, we shall improve communication with each other and with the public.

　　We could take a more pragmatic and incremental approach and start by solving the easy part first, as those issues concerning industrial policy and state interventions are very hard to conciliate soon.

　　We shall take those essentially multilateral issues to multilateral platforms, whereby concessions and enforcement could be easier to arrange. More importantly, this may contribute to WTO reform and help sustain the globalization momentum in this critical time when it is challenged by rising populism.

本文首發于微信公眾號：中國金融四十人論壇。文章內容屬作者個人觀點，不代表和訊網立場。投資者據此操作，風險請自擔。